A Simple Reflection

Prior transgressions transform into present-day aggressions.
All of which conflates an accelerated pace with that of progress in this race.

Interpreted words written in lines and those verbally expressed at the mercy of time distorted by those whose hearts have created worlds where a static existence is something worthy of praise.

Unconscious conditioning takes its toll—we could fold our hand and take whatever earnings we have gained in our short stay, or we could wait and hope that today won’t be the day we metamorphose into ghosts.

Dynamic Reflections

After all this reflection, my conscious perception is clouded with projections yearning for transference to an object external of “me.” The activated archetypes resonant with their specific vibrational frequencies, compelling my spirit to set them free onto something outward defined in terms other than “me.”

The ambiguity and dynamical nature of the terms “other” and “me” result in a continuous game of deliberation, evaluation, contemplation, and modification.

There is never enough time, yet, ironically, the abundance, or at the least, the continuity of time is the basis for the dialectical change ceaseless taking place between these two names.

The task of equilibrium requires continuous energy. Even my conception of appropriate starting points does not remain the same. As I project onto others names, blames, and similar types of psychic games, self-doubt lets itself back into my mind to remind me of what may have changed across the span of time.

All the turbulence produced from everyday change creates a seductive argument urging my analytical brain to review the evidence, yet again. Inevitably, I rewrite my scripts of beliefs when presented with new evidence that reveals the presence of blight in what I currently believed were genuine insights.

Only through hindsight can I access a different vantage point from which to survey my constituent parts’ nature in a new light, left once more to contemplate what’s right.

Turbulence

You can decipher the content.

I can derive the mechanism.

You can see the imagery.

I can watch for emergencies.

You can drive the highways,

While I gaze at the streets.

You can walk away,

While I stare at my feet.

You can feed the meek,

While I organize my weeks. 

Sea of Mysteries

lake-2063957_1280

Remember the sea as the shimmer of the sun reflected back upon the images of you and me?
Remember the times when we were free from the restrictions placed on us by this eucatastrophe?
Waves crashed against our shins as we basked in the sun, allowing the violet light to penetrate our skin.
The cut that scarred your chin organizes other memories of us within.
Are we still as free as when we attempted to climb willow trees;
Or, have we entered into a different type of motion-picture reality?
One full of chaos and disorder with those who pledge their blind loyalty to the integrity of what they see to be the greatest threat to all of humanity.

Determining Sequences

stained-glass-1181864_1280

Could it be so simple?
Break down the principle,
And trace the threads that interweave reality.
Do the same patterns that govern the stars orient the psychic content floating in me?
Have I merely been blind this whole time?
Particulars combined and arranged in an infinitude of creative gestalts.
The need for discernment in deciding when to halt has become a reoccurring thought.
Is it based on what I’ve been taught or lessons from creeds that are pervaded by oughts?
How much time do I allot to cognitive wrestlings, such as this?
I could be opening a bottomless abyss.
Yet, dismissing these inquires could prove to be remiss.
Therefore, I continue to persist seeking a degree of bliss from my inner restlessness.

Turning Point

In times of turmoil,
You are there to help the toil.
For don’t let these opportunities spoil in fear that you won’t succeed here.
God has a plan for those that seek His face;
However this journey is set at His pace,
And you must learn to trust and have patience,
even in the darkness of uncertainty of this race.

Divisions of the Heart

Brutality over emotionality is such a clever reality.

Chaos builds in the collective ‘we’ and inside of the individual’s ‘me’,

As violence in the name of righteousness blinds how we see.

An intermittent love marked by fleeting trust and hearts betrayed by lust.

Each day is a rush, as we move toward our eventual return to dust.

However, today is a must, for this is a moment to adapt and adjust.

Mysterious Arising

antonio-alcantara-KFUgbW4mBJo-unsplash

See what it is that rises from dark days and turmoil.

Bear witness to the tides receding inwards.

As time’s weight flickers in significance,

The flame in all of us elucidates the darkness.

Those outward projections wane in their collective values,

As we return to our personal milieus.

Waste not for the time has arrived—

Indeed, it is already here.

New, Collectively

In times of chaos and turmoil,
We are forced to recoil.
While uncertainty rises,
A certain peace subsides within.
From the depth of the numinous waters in thyself,
Emerges remnants of primordial past.
A shared adversary that has plagued the course of human history
Begins to rekindle the collective necessity for collaboration.
Our faith in society’s infrastructure diminishes,
As our mandate to one another replenishes.
The finish line has become unclear—
A pervasive fog obscures the cognitive certainty once known.
Leaving us to either agonize about being alone,
Or rejoice in humanity’s change to a compassionate tone.

Unprecedented

While the markets closed with another one-day record high, it is important to think about the last few weeks, as well as place it in a historical context.

Within the last two weeks, we have witnessed multiple one-day record highs and lows. Simply looking at this past week, Monday started with a record one-day low, the worst drop since the crash of 1987, and then the markets set another record one-day high the Friday of this same week (Friday 13th, 2020). The week before last there had been days with record lows followed by record highs the very next day. This is market volatility on a different level.

For example, during the historic drop on Monday, the markets tripped the “circuit breaker,” a mechanism that automatically halts trading for a period of time when markets drop too sharply. This was the first time this mechanism was tripped since 1997; moreover, the circuit breaker was tripped two more times within this last week, due largely to the coronavirus fears.

It is well-established that the markets do not like uncertainty, however, that is exactly the situation that coronavirus is causing. During the 2008 financial crisis, the main issue was the popping of the housing market bubble that led the U.S. Federal Reserve to slash interest rates to zero and the government to approve the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act—a $700 billion bailout to buy mortgage-backed securities. Moreover, while the exact cause of the 1987 crash is subject to some debate, it involved investors’ growing concerns of an impending bear-market, the novelty of beginning to use computer systems on Wall Street, and issues surrounding the role the Chairman of Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan, had in the matter. While both these cases resulted in significant economic effects and the loss of jobs for many, the current situation is quite different.

In general, people use the past as a model to predict the future and help inform decision-making. There is a slew of cognitive biases that effect this process; however, when it comes to Wall Street and the stock markets, it seems that there are some foundational assumptions that blind people from the notion that the future is novel. For example, The Black Swan Theory highlights the fact that people tend to have biases that blind them to the potential for rare and unexpected future events that may have significant effects. Nowhere is this more true than the stock market, which is literally based on decision theory—a fixed model of outcomes that ignores and/or minimizes the impact of events that are considered “outliers” or outcomes outside of the basic model.

Unfortunately, this is not how life unfolds, as we can look back on historic events that were quite rare, though having a significant impact. This is the reason for the recent headlines of articles featuring economists stating that “This time is different.” One notable economist sounding the alarm on this issue is Economist David Rosenberg. He was serving as the chief economist for Merrill Lynch during the 2008 financial crisis. However, in a recent article, he clearly delineates the 2008 crisis from the economic crisis currently happening when he states:

“In the financial crisis, air travel didn’t come to a halt, borders weren’t being closed, we weren’t talking about quarantines and self-isolation. In the financial crisis, people weren’t scared to leave their homes. We’re talking about palpable fear and when people get fearful, they withdraw from economic activity…. The reality is the financial crisis did not come with a mortality rate.”

The effects of the coronavirus have already led to unprecedented cancellations of events, activities, etc. These effects have already prompted The Federal Reserve to take action. Most recently, this action was in the form of $1.5 trillion in short-term loans to banks in order to “address [the] highly unusual disruptions in Treasury financing markets associated with the coronavirus outbreak,” The Federal Reserve remarked Thursday, March 12th. The response by the Federal Reserve is detailed and not limited to simply this one action. This plan will be implemented over the course of weeks, in addition to the possibility of cutting interest rates more (a move they already did a few weeks ago).

However, despite these moves by The Federal Reserve attempting to prevent an economic collapse, some like Christopher Whalen, investment banker and founder of Whalen Global Advisors, do not think The Federal Reserve will be able to stop what is coming. Whalen highlights the fact that the financial system was not healthy to begin with and states that “The virus was the catalyst but it’s not the cause. Both bonds and equities were inflated rather dramatically by our friends at the Fed. You’re seeing the end game for monetary policy here, which is at a certain point you have to stop. Otherwise you get grotesque asset bubbles like we saw, and the engine just runs out of fuel.” Whalen is pointing to a sickness in the symptoms that predated this coronavirus outbreak. Moreover, David Rosenberg wrote in detail about some of these issues in a Financial Post article dated February 7th, 2020. In this article, Rosenberg writes “Fed policy, the trajectory of GDP growth and global economic fundamentals in general all tell a cautionary tale. Both bonds and stocks can’t be right at this moment in time…the equity market no longer seems to trade off the economic fundamentals. Never before has there been such a loose relationship to economic growth.” He wrote this article before the coronavirus started having its significant effects; additionally, he never mentions the virus in the article. What Rosenberg was critiquing was the framework of the current economic system and the dysfunctions that existed, such as discrepancies between market values and asset values.

Taken in sum, these points that I have laid out indicate that the economic effects stemming from this virus were not limited to the coronavirus alone. Instead, the virus served as the catalyst that is now testing the economic foundation of the system itself. After all, this event is one that impacts all aspects of the economy, since it impacts daily life and social activities. This event has released a cascade of events that cannot be walked back; moreover, the temporal extent and the economic/societal impact of this outbreak are entirely uncertain. The only certainty is that the coupling of a pandemic—that has not reached its peak yet—with an economy that has been built using the most advanced technologies in human history and relies on mass, sustained and fast-paced consumerism, will produce an outcome that is entirely novel from the status quo we are accustomed to.

 

References

https://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/recession-feature

https://www.vox.com/2020/3/12/21176567/us-stock-markets-shut-down-trading-coronavirus-massive-sell-off-circuit-breaker

https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-to-inject-1-5-trillion-in-bid-to-prevent-unusual-disruptions-in-markets-11584033537

https://business.financialpost.com/investing/investing-pro/david-rosenberg-this-turbocharged-debt-cycle-will-end-miserably-its-just-a-matter-of-when